DanH Show full post »
DocHolliday
Wonder how this pandemic will effect FVV's next contract.  Will he sign long term this offseason for security or sign a 1 year deal?  Does this situation create a chance for Detroit or NY or some other team to poach FVV with a bigger number that would deter the Raps from matching due to the drop in the cap?  Does the cap drop muck up having a max slot in the 2021 offseason?  So many questions. lol
Quote 0 0
moremilk
DocHolliday wrote:
Wonder how this pandemic will effect FVV's next contract.  Will he sign long term this offseason for security or sign a 1 year deal?  Does this situation create a chance for Detroit or NY or some other team to poach FVV with a bigger number that would deter the Raps from matching due to the drop in the cap?  Does the cap drop muck up having a max slot in the 2021 offseason?  So many questions. lol


While there was some chatter that fred may be maxed out by a team like detroit or NYK, it really seems like a big overpay. Fred is not a max player, and while he's young, he's not that young. If I'm Fred, I definitely get the most money I can get this season, on a long term contract. Especially that there's no guarantee next summer will be much better. There's a chance the cap doesn't recover all that much, in a worse case scenario where much of next season is played without fans.

If the Raptors offer him 20M/year, on a 5 year deal, he should be very tempted by that offer.
Quote 0 0
DocHolliday

moremilk wrote:


While there was some chatter that fred may be maxed out by a team like detroit or NYK, it really seems like a big overpay. Fred is not a max player, and while he's young, he's not that young. If I'm Fred, I definitely get the most money I can get this season, on a long term contract. Especially that there's no guarantee next summer will be much better. There's a chance the cap doesn't recover all that much, in a worse case scenario where much of next season is played without fans.

If the Raptors offer him 20M/year, on a 5 year deal, he should be very tempted by that offer.


If the cap drops to 95 million with a tax line of 115 for 20/21, that could get interesting.  Hopefully the league leaves the tax line at 139 as suggested in the article on the other page of this thread.  Looking at next season with FVV at 20, Ibaka at 15, Gasol at 10, and RHJ at 5,  it puts the Raps at 130 mm already (and some of these no#'s seem low).  Just a side note, TD is non guaranteed and he's shown himself too good to be left on that contract and risk losing him in the summer of 2021.  Also, as you can see, Boucher is not on the roster.  This will likely take a few teams several seasons to recover, does one bite the bullet over the short term to keep the team competitive?  Or has the pandemic forced teams like the Raps to consider a rebuild?  

20/21
Klow - 30.5 mm
Pascal - 24 mm (est 25%)
FVV - 20 mm
Powell - 10.87 mm
Ibaka - 15 mm
Gasol - 10 mm
RHJ - 5 mm
McCaw - 4 mm
OG - 3.87 mm
Johnson - 3.8 mm
TD 1.5 (non guar.)
Thomas - 1.5 (non guar.)
 
Est total - 130 mm



*Feel free to correct anything, I tend to butcher cap schtuff.




Quote 0 0
DocHolliday
Does any one have a pass to theathletic?  Curious what Hollinger has to say....maybe I need to pony up lol...


Hollinger: How a salary cap reduction next season impacts each NBA team
Quote 0 0
moremilk
nothing much, too generic of an article to go over 30 teams. here's the raptors piece

Quote:

Toronto – The Raptors are in a weird situation too. With three major free agents (Marc Gasol, Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka) and an estimated $43 million in room from a lowered tax line, the Raptors were always going to be an underdog to keep all three while skirting the tax. However, hanging on to two of them and filling the third spot via their full mid-level exception seemed a lot more plausible when the projected tax number was $139 million.
Now it may be difficult for Toronto to keep two of the three and use any exception money, while the odds of finding leftover money to keep one of their energizer forwards (Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris Boucher) will take a hit as well. Using the stretch provision on Stanley Johnson ($3,804,150) or trading him outright could add a bit of wiggle room, as could a willingness to go a few million into the tax. (Keep in mind, however, that using the full MLE would trigger a hard cap).
If the Raptors are outbid on Van Vleet, however, they may be able to use their full mid-level exception on a guard, re-sign one of Gasol or Ibaka, re-sign one of Hollis-Jefferson or Boucher, and still comfortably dodge the tax man.
Quote 1 0
DocHolliday
moremilk wrote:
nothing much, too generic of an article to go over 30 teams. here's the raptors piece



Thanks MM - generic is right lol.  I can see the cap dropping but it makes a lot of sense keeping the tax line where it was going to be this coming season at 139 mm.  No need to penalize the majority of teams for suddenly being in the tax that wouldn't have been.  A unique situation needs a unique solution.  
Quote 0 0
DanH
Hard to get too tied up in knots over a cap drop because it will likely be far less than what everyone is talking about. If the league stuck to the CBA, yes the cap would drop, but the league and PA will certainly come to an agreement on a cap number that will be disconnected from the revenues this year, so free agency should be kept mostly intact (there will likely be some drop, just not the precipitous one projected), and the revenues will be scaled back from the players via a larger temporary escrow system for next year.
Quote 3 0
moremilk
DanH wrote:
Hard to get too tied up in knots over a cap drop because it will likely be far less than what everyone is talking about. If the league stuck to the CBA, yes the cap would drop, but the league and PA will certainly come to an agreement on a cap number that will be disconnected from the revenues this year, so free agency should be kept mostly intact (there will likely be some drop, just not the precipitous one projected), and the revenues will be scaled back from the players via a larger temporary escrow system for next year.


why so optimistic about it, last time it happened, in 2016, they couldn't. 

it's going to be really complicated, and the more complex, the less likely you'll get an agreement. Because the issue is not just this year, but the next too. There's a smal, but real chance that next season my drop even more in terms of revenues. This year, if they restart, they'd only lose the fans  for a quarter of the season + playoffs. Depending on when a mass market vaccine becomes available, they could lose even more. Even in a best case scenario, they'd still lose a pretty big chunk.

Then you have the old issue - some teams stand to gain if the cap drops, other stand to lose. Same for players. The Raptors would very much want the cap to drop massively this year and the next, when most of our key pieces are up for renewal for example. You know they will vote against any kind of cap smoothing. Generally speaking, owners as a group would prefer the cap to go down, since all salaries would be less. Unless they're in danger of missing out on say a max slot or something, they are likely to prefer letting things go as planned.

I may be biased, because I really hope the cap drops massively - it could be a huge advantage for the raptors for half a decade, if the contracts for siakam, OG an FVV all come at a discount.
Quote 0 0
DanH
moremilk wrote:


why so optimistic about it, last time it happened, in 2016, they couldn't. 

it's going to be really complicated, and the more complex, the less likely you'll get an agreement. Because the issue is not just this year, but the next too. There's a smal, but real chance that next season my drop even more in terms of revenues. This year, if they restart, they'd only lose the fans  for a quarter of the season + playoffs. Depending on when a mass market vaccine becomes available, they could lose even more. Even in a best case scenario, they'd still lose a pretty big chunk.

Then you have the old issue - some teams stand to gain if the cap drops, other stand to lose. Same for players. The Raptors would very much want the cap to drop massively this year and the next, when most of our key pieces are up for renewal for example. You know they will vote against any kind of cap smoothing. Generally speaking, owners as a group would prefer the cap to go down, since all salaries would be less. Unless they're in danger of missing out on say a max slot or something, they are likely to prefer letting things go as planned.

I may be biased, because I really hope the cap drops massively - it could be a huge advantage for the raptors for half a decade, if the contracts for siakam, OG an FVV all come at a discount.


Last time it was radically different. It was just some players taking money from other players, and the PA has always (in that case stupidly) been dogmatic about protecting FA. In this case not coming to an agreement would scuttle free agency. And the players who signed rookie scale extensions (which typically form the up and coming superstar group) have reason to want the cap to stay high, again the opposite of last time.

Also, last time the league had "pretty please" as their leverage. This time they have force majeur and ripping up the CBA as their leverage. Slightly different situations.

No team gains with a cap drop. The amount of money the owners will pay to the players has nothing to do with the value of the cap, assuming a reasonable escrow plan (which is not currently in place, but that's part of why there's no way they just stick to the CBA here).. 

They will almost certainly put in a cap drop of some kind. But not one commensurate with the numbers being floated as direct consequences of this year's reduced revenue. It will be a negotiated middle ground drop that protects the owners from overspending in a revenue-risk season, protects the players' raw salary values moving forward as the cap rebounds in future, protects the players who planned for free agency this summer, and keeps the league competitive, while being more in line with what actual expectations are for revenue next year, rather than using the usual math for unusual circumstances. 
Quote 0 0
DocHolliday
Quote:

RealGM WiretapRealGM Wiretap

NBA Would 'Likely' Lose Up To $2 Billion In Revenue Should Season Get Canceled

JUN 20, 2020 5:14 PM

[nba_realgm]

The NBA would "likely" lose up to $2 billion in revenue should the rest of the season get canceled, according to Bobby Marks of ESPN.

Players would lose $1.25 billion, including $380 million in escrow and $870 million in salary based on the force majeure clause.

League owners could also tear up the current CBA should the rest of the season be canceled. 

BOBBY MARKS/ESPN

TAGS: NBANBA MISC RUMORNBA PLAYOFFS

Quote 0 0
DanH
Owners absolutely WOULD tear up the CBA if the season gets cancelled. They'd have tremendous leverage in negotiations. Which is why, for all the noise about maybe the players won't play, and no matter how bad the idea seems, especially with Florida falling apart, this end of season/playoffs will almost certainly still happen. The players have a LOT to lose. That's not to say they don't have a lot to lose going back to work with the risks, but as we are seeing, the almighty dollar is king (in the NBA and in general...). 
Quote 0 0
DocHolliday
Quote:

RealGM WiretapRealGM Wiretap

NBA Could Increase Players' Escrow Amount From 10 Percent To 20 For 20-21 Season

JUL 10, 2020 11:23 AM

[Paul_Chris_okc_200617]

The NBA and players have agreed to a September deadline for what modifications will need to be made to the collective bargaining agreement to account for the economic realities of the pandemic.

The starting point will be the inverse of the "cap spike" that the NBA faced in 2016. The players rejected "smoothing" the cap and the league didn't push the issue, which resulted in a $24 million spike.

Instead of a steep drop of the cap, the concept would be to keep the cap artificially high for the 20-21 season, potentially around $109 million and achieve the needed 50-50 split by every player taking an equal percentage paycut.

The league withholds 10 percent of players' salaries in escrow currently and sources say one option is to increase the escrow amount to 20 percent for one season.

"Don't think it's lost on any of us that the Warriors could end up benefiting from the cap spike in 2016 and then cap smoothing if we have it in 2020," one general manager said.

Another league executive said, "I agree this concept makes the most sense in the uncertain times we have. But if [smoothing] is where it goes, it does penalize teams who have done better long-term planning."

"In one case, the owners want a loan from the players. And in the other case, the players want a loan from the owners," one prominent agent said. "It will probably end up somewhere in the middle and it will get done after some yelling and posturing."

BRIAN WINDHORST, TIM BONTEMPS/ESPN

TAGS: NBANBA CBA

Quote 0 0
DanH
That agent framing it as a loan from one side to the other, suggesting one side benefits from having the money in the short term, is very misleading. Money paid into escrow doesn't stay with the owners, it goes into a fund that earns interest for whichever party the money is paid out to at the end of the year. 

Frankly, escrow should probably be higher as a standard operating procedure, and certainly higher now in this scenario. I'm surprised 20% would do it. I think if it comes in that low, they are being optimistic, unless they have a solid reason to believe they'll be able to fill stadiums next season.
Quote 0 0
DanH
Wrote two pieces on the cap situation this summer (and planning for next). Really was one piece but editors be editors. Much fuller explanations if you want to go read the full pieces, but I'm pulling a bunch of excerpts that should cover your big picture stuff.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2020/9/17/...view-decisions
https://www.raptorshq.com/2020/9/18/...son-2020-plans 

Quote:

Player | 2020-21 Salary


Pascal Siakam: $30.6M
Kyle Lowry: $30.5M
Norman Powell: $10.9M
Patrick McCaw: $4.0M
OG Anunoby: $3.9M
Stanley Johnson: $3.8M (Player Option)
Terence Davis: $1.5M
Matt Thomas: $1.5M
Dewan Hernandez: $1.5M

The Raptors also have the 29th pick in the draft, which comes with a $1.5 million cap hit.


Quote:
So that is $88.2 million in committed salary for next season to 10 players (including that first round pick). With a salary cap of $109 million, and the minimum salary cap holds that sit on empty roster spots, that means at most, they could have $19 million in cap room, if they let all their free agents walk and want to sign another team’s free agent.


Quote:

Player | 2021-22 Salary


Pascal Siakam: $33.0M
Norman Powell: $11.6M (Player Option)
Matt Thomas: $1.8M
Dewan Hernandez: $1.8M
OG Anunoby: $11.6M (cap hold)
Terence Davis: $2.1M (cap hold)

Norman Powell will likely opt out of that final year, if he even comes close to replicating his success from this past year. If he doesn’t, and seems likely to opt in, expect the Raptors to try to move his contract at the deadline. For now, assuming he will opt out is how we’ll approach this.

Now add in the second year of this draft’s first rounder and the first year of the following draft’s first rounder. (I used the 20th pick, assuming the 11th best record, to make sure we capture the likely worst case cap hit.) The Raptors would have the above five players (excluding Powell) and two draft picks locked in for $54.1 million in salary. That’s seven slots, meaning Toronto would also have five empty roster spot cap holds at $900,000 each — so let’s set their total cap commitment at $58.6 million.

With a presumed $109 million cap, that means $50.4 million in room to add additional talent to that group of seven. One of those pieces to add would be the max salary free agent Toronto will want to sign that summer. If it is Giannis, or someone else with his experience, that max salary is 30 percent of the cap, or $32.7 million.


Quote:
So, take that as a best estimate right now: the Raptors will have somewhere between $13.1 million and $18.5 million to work with in 2021 before considering this coming fall off-season.


Quote:

2020 Raptors Free Agents


Marc Gasol (UFA)
Serge Ibaka (UFA)
Fred VanVleet (UFA)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (UFA)
Chris Boucher (RFA)
Malcolm Miller (RFA)


Quote:
So, for example, if Fred was to earn the biggest contract the Raptors could fit, they could structure it with a dip in year two before rising again thereafter, so that the second year stays at that $18.5 million number. Most contracts either stay flat, or just have raises every year — but teams can be creative if they want to be. For example, a potential five-year VanVleet contract could be structured to look like this:

2020-21: 20.2M
2021-22: 18.5M
2022-23: 20.2M
2023-24: 21.8M
2024-25: 23.4M

That makes for an average salary of just under $21 million for VanVleet, with a total compensation of $104 million. It’s also a very competitive offer even if the market for VanVleet is very strong. To compare: a max offer for Fred from another team would be $117 million over 4 years, or an average salary of $29.3 million.


Quote:
Let’s take a look at Serge Ibaka, for example. He had a great year off the bench and seems primed to at the very least get a longer term offer of three or four years at the MLE (the Mid-Level Exception: about $10 million average salary). If Ibaka has a $30 million contract waiting for him, how much would the Raptors need to pay him to get him to agree to a one year deal? A $10 million deal for one year won’t cut it — at 31 years old (as of today; happy birthday big guy!), what if Ibaka gets hurt or drops off this year? Now, given Ibaka’s role, age, and performance, it won’t be as high as $30 million per year — but the price tag is probably $20 million or maybe even higher to get Ibaka signed for just one season. And that assumes no team with cap room is going to throw him a deal for, say, $15 million average salary (or higher) per season in a multi-year contract, which is possible. This would equate to an even higher one-year equivalent — and at a certain point, there no longer exists a one-year equivalent.


Quote:
The Raptors, as we discussed yesterday, will have spent approximately $88.2 million on their first ten players. Then add Fred VanVleet, assuming we use that $20.2 million first-year salary, which brings that total to $108.4 million for 11 players. Right away, the Raptors are only $24 million from the tax line, or maybe as much as $32 million if it stays high. But either way, if the Raptors want to re-sign only one free agent, that means the other three slots to get to the minimum roster size of 14 players would cost $4.9 million against the tax (for luxury tax purposes, all minimum salaries are treated like veteran minimum salaries, which are about $1.6 million now). So that one well-paid player needs to get less than $19 million in that one year to avoid starting the tax repeater clock.

As we established earlier, even in the optimistic assumption that Ibaka only has the MLE waiting for him, that might not be enough to keep him. Perhaps more realistic: the Raptors could offer about $10 million each to Boucher and Gasol to get them to stick around for a year, letting Ibaka walk, and the dust settle on the rest of the market.


Quote:
But, what if the Raptors don’t land their big fish free agent in the summer of 2021? What if even the Raptors’ secondary targets for that cap room go elsewhere?

That’s where having all those expiring contracts comes in handy, as compared to trading players away trying to extract some small amount of value from what remains on their deals.

If they hit the 2021 off-season and discover they’re not going to sign a big name free agent, the Raptors will also be sitting on the Bird Rights for the following players (assuming those that are free agents are re-signed this summer):

Kyle Lowry
Norman Powell (assuming he opts out of his player option)
Marc Gasol (or Serge if Toronto can afford him)
Chris Boucher
​​​​​​​
Quote 1 0
Jakkal

DanH wrote:
Wrote two pieces on the cap situation this summer (and planning for next). Really was one piece but editors be editors. Much fuller explanations if you want to go read the full pieces, but I'm pulling a bunch of excerpts that should cover your big picture stuff.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2020/9/17/...view-decisions
https://www.raptorshq.com/2020/9/18/...son-2020-plans 



The links appear to be broken.

DanH wrote:

With a presumed $109 million cap, that means $50.4 million in room to add additional talent to that group of seven. One of those pieces to add would be the max salary free agent Toronto will want to sign that summer. If it is Giannis, or someone else with his experience, that max salary is 30 percent of the cap, or $32.7 million.

AND...

DanH wrote:

So, take that as a best estimate right now: the Raptors will have somewhere between $13.1 million and $18.5 million to work with in 2021 before considering this coming fall off-season.


Based on your numbers...  50.4M - 32.7M leaves 17.7M not 18.5M  unless I'm missing something...

If it is 17.7M what's the best they can offer Fred and have it hit 17.7 in year 2.



 

Quote 0 0