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DanH


I’ve watched Miller enough to say he is a below-average defender with limited instincts. He offers length and shooting and not much else.

I wouldn’t say Davis raw. He’s a rookie who is still finding his place on the team. He’s already a really good defender, has a solid handle, and can shoot. He needs to be more assertive. On his fouls, way to pick a single game and an anomaly no less. Like Dan asked, do you really believe he’s going to average a foul every 74 seconds? Last game, the refs picked on him. The previous games, he didn’t have any issues. 

It’s unfortunate that McCaw got hurt. He would have been the most obvious candidate to start at SG. 


Well, if that last statement is correct I'm not sure unfortunate is the word. Well, obviously it is for him and it sucks. But it's a legitimate question whether McCaw should be getting any minutes even now with the Lowry injury, nevermind starting him.
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Northern Neighbour
DanH wrote:


Well, if that last statement is correct I'm not sure unfortunate is the word. Well, obviously it is for him and it sucks. But it's a legitimate question whether McCaw should be getting any minutes even now with the Lowry injury, nevermind starting him.


Yes, unfortunate for him. Also unfortunate for the Raps since he was getting 20 mpg and is in Nurse's good books. He's not a difference maker, but he plays very good defence, is a solid ball handler, and an improving shooter. He's a depth option. And since we were discussing options at SG, McCaw, if healthy, would have presented an alternative and a better one than Miller.
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moremilk
I don't have a problem with davis starting, but I wish I shared your optimism about the fouls. He's a rookie, so by default he'll get a raw deal most nights. His physical style of defense will serve him great in his career, but as a rookie, it's going to be hard to defend properly without being in constant foul trouble. 

But the reason I suggested miller to start is not because he's better than powell or davis, because he isn't - but because it would allow us to expand the rotation by one guy. Right now, he's getting no minutes, if he can play 15mpg with the starters, it would improve our rotation depth. And if it doesn't work, at least we can end the experiment. I don't see the point in miller taking a roster spot at a position of strength if he's not going to play. Waive him and go after a PG instead.

It's moot now anyway, nurse will be forced to go deep beyond the top 7 now, so hopefully by the time kyle and ibaka return, we'll have a few non-core players carving a solid rotation spot to expand the bench.
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DanH


Yes, unfortunate for him. Also unfortunate for the Raps since he was getting 20 mpg and is in Nurse's good books. He's not a difference maker, but he plays very good defence, is a solid ball handler, and an improving shooter. He's a depth option. And since we were discussing options at SG, McCaw, if healthy, would have presented an alternative and a better one than Miller.


He's definitely a difference maker. He makes a huge difference, the team is way worse with him than anyone else. He's probably the worst defender on the team, I don't know why everyone says he's a good defender. He gets blown by more often and more easily than anyone I've ever seen. 

McCaw is a worse option to start at SG than: Powell, Miller, Thomas, Davis II. 

You are right that for some reason he seems to have the faith of the organization though. I maintain that that doesn't mean his being available to be overplayed because of that faith would have been a good thing for the Raptors.
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elT
As long as it is not Stanley Johnson I'm fine.
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Northern Neighbour
DanH wrote:


He's definitely a difference maker. He makes a huge difference, the team is way worse with him than anyone else. He's probably the worst defender on the team, I don't know why everyone says he's a good defender. He gets blown by more often and more easily than anyone I've ever seen. 

McCaw is a worse option to start at SG than: Powell, Miller, Thomas, Davis II. 

You are right that for some reason he seems to have the faith of the organization though. I maintain that that doesn't mean his being available to be overplayed because of that faith would have been a good thing for the Raptors.


You're basing your assessment on two games? On his 28 total games as a Raptor that total 440 minutes? As you like to say, "sample size". For a guy who likes stats, the advanced stats say he's an above-average defender. Offensively, he clearly has a ways to go. He's athletic, smart, and a good defender, but he hasn't been able to a) stay healthy; b) find his role in the offence; and c) play with confidence.
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DanH


You're basing your assessment on two games? On his 28 total games as a Raptor that total 440 minutes? As you like to say, "sample size". For a guy who likes stats, the advanced stats say he's an above-average defender. Offensively, he clearly has a ways to go. He's athletic, smart, and a good defender, but he hasn't been able to a) stay healthy; b) find his role in the offence; and c) play with confidence.


I'm basing that assessment on a) every minute I've ever seen him play and b) yes, 440 minutes of absolutely miserable statistical results. Small samples can mislead, but that's not that small a sample, and extremely bad results in small samples still predict at least moderately bad results in bigger samples.

Which advanced stats say he's an above average defender?  McCaw had a negative DRPM last year. He has a -0.65 multi-year DPIPM (which includes this year and last for data). His DPIPM in his last GSW year was -1.44, while his DRPM that year was -2.58. Simple on-offs show the team is better defensively without him than with, no matter what season or sample you want to look at, and no matter how closely you narrow the context to remove bad lineups that might not be his fault, except in cases where the sample size is insignificant. In any case, if your stance is that there hasn't been a significant sample here, why would you want to rely on the advanced stats that stabilize with much larger samples?

I'm mostly basing my assessment on how frequently during each game I am screaming at my television because McCaw has managed to lose his man entirely off a single screen, or without a screen at all, and how the defence has to scramble to rotate and give up good looks. Sure, he has the worst DRTG on the team by 12 points, too, and it feels that way, but the sample this year is tiny. It's just, if that result is predictable (it very is), it's hard to write it off as coincidence.

And yes, you are right, his offence has a ways to go. It's a complete disaster. I don't rail on it as much because it seems to be an accepted fact that any lineup with McCaw will be miserable offensively no matter his defensive impact (which, again, also bad). Which made it surprising anyone would want him starting, considering the offence would die, and that's the one lineup that's been consistently able to score. Playing 4 on 5 with that lineup seems like a bad idea.
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