JeffB Show full post »
Northern Neighbour
Middleton isn't even that good of a defensive player! 

On OG, the team should address his contract after, as Doc stated, the dust settles with free agency in 2021. If OG has improved leaps and bounds to earn a max contract, then as a franchise you gladly pay him. That means he's evolved into a top-20 possibly a top-10 guy. Suddenly, the team has a franchise player around whom they can build a team and sell a pending UFA (like Giannis) to join him. Such a development would also give Masai flexibility to make a bold move, such as dealing Siakam for a legitimate, two-way 2-guard. 
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DanH
Middleton isn't even that good of a defensive player! 

On OG, the team should address his contract after, as Doc stated, the dust settles with free agency in 2021. If OG has improved leaps and bounds to earn a max contract, then as a franchise you gladly pay him. That means he's evolved into a top-20 possibly a top-10 guy. Suddenly, the team has a franchise player around whom they can build a team and sell a pending UFA (like Giannis) to join him. Such a development would also give Masai flexibility to make a bold move, such as dealing Siakam for a legitimate, two-way 2-guard. 


Heck, by then we could have a very different evaluation of basically everyone on the roster. Why rush into decisions now? 

The team will pay the tax if it comes to it. They’ll pay a lot of tax if it comes to it. Step one is getting the talent.
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Northern Neighbour
DanH wrote:


Heck, by then we could have a very different evaluation of basically everyone on the roster. Why rush into decisions now? 

The team will pay the tax if it comes to it. They’ll pay a lot of tax if it comes to it. Step one is getting the talent.


Where in my post does it suggest that the team should rush in a decision on OG or anyone else? 
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DanH


Where in my post does it suggest that the team should rush in a decision on OG or anyone else? 


I was agreeing with you, building upon your point. Apologies for the confusion.
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Northern Neighbour
DanH wrote:


I was agreeing with you, building upon your point. Apologies for the confusion.


I forget to write that last point (specifically, "or were you agreeing with me?"). Sometimes the translation and nuance get lost in these forums. But yeah, no rush to decide on the contracts of guys already under control for the next two years. 
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moremilk
from blake

Quote:

This is as complicated as the VanVleet situation. Eric and I intend to expand on it in a future column together, so I’ll only mention it briefly here.

Anunoby is eligible for a rookie-scale extension this offseason. It makes sense to try to sign him long-term now, as he appeared on the precipice of a breakout that could make him significantly more expensive if he’s allowed to test restricted free agency in 2021. Any savings the Raptors may get from an Anunoby extension now comes with a cost: Lost flexibility in 2021.

If Anunoby is allowed to become an RFA, he will count on the books for $11.6 million at the start of the 2021 offseason. That is a “cap hold,” which is explained more here. The Raptors could keep Anunoby on the books at $11.6 million, use their cap space, then re-sign him to a new deal. If they instead sign him to an extension now, he’ll count on the books for whatever that extension is worth. So if Anunoby gets a four-year, $60-million extension with standard raises ($13.4-million starting salary), that would eat about $1.8 million of the team’s 2021 cap space.

The Raptors have to balance a tough trade-off here between locking in Anunoby at a cheaper price and sacrificing flexibility later. (And that’s before getting to the non-financial reasons to take care of your homegrown prospects).



so OG's cap hold is actually 11.4, not 8M, not sure where I read the lower amount. So a scenario like Blake describes above is obviously something to be considered. 

I think the 13.4M he has for OG's starting salary is very reasonable for where he is now. And yes, it's highly unlikely he'll improve to a max contract, but it's also fairly likely that his starting salary will be much higher than 13.4 next summer.

I definitely don't agree with the statement that the team will pay "a lot" of tax, I'm highly skeptical of that. We just don't have the resources to have a 180M payroll, which would be a starting point for after 3 years in luxury, if we're even 15M-20M into the tax.
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moremilk
his article today is about fred, using his assumptions about cap space (remaining flat for this year and the next) and using OG's 13.4M theoretical exension, if powell leaves, we could go as high as 25-26M for van vleet. Obviously, that's an overpay, but it's unclear what we can do if he gets that kind of money elsewhere. 

Under this scenario, kyle, serge, gasol and ibaka would all be gone, and we'd have a roster centered around giannis, siakam, og, fred, td2 and whatever young guys we accumulate by then.
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'trane
https://twitter.com/steven_lebron/status/1306081405131272198?s=19
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moremilk
great, siakam made 2nd team ... the one year he should have missed it 🙂
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Northern Neighbour
moremilk wrote:


so OG's cap hold is actually 11.4, not 8M, not sure where I read the lower amount. So a scenario like Blake describes above is obviously something to be considered. 

I think the 13.4M he has for OG's starting salary is very reasonable for where he is now. And yes, it's highly unlikely he'll improve to a max contract, but it's also fairly likely that his starting salary will be much higher than 13.4 next summer.

I definitely don't agree with the statement that the team will pay "a lot" of tax, I'm highly skeptical of that. We just don't have the resources to have a 180M payroll, which would be a starting point for after 3 years in luxury, if we're even 15M-20M into the tax.


Why do you say the team doesn't have the resources to go into the tax? The Raptors are the fifth-highest revenue-generating team in the league behind New York, LAL, Golden State, and Houston, and they're owned by two big conglomerates. The question is whether MLSE is willing to spend into the tax. Recent reports suggested they were (i.e., following winning the title and attempts to re-sign Kawhi and Green). Under the right scenario, MLSE likely will be willing to spend into the tax for a year or two. They probably wouldn't want to pay multiple repeater tax (who does), but Masai and Webster have done a good job at managing the cap (see Lowry's one-year contract).
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moremilk
where did I say that? I said they won't want to go deep in the tax. Once you go in the tax for 3 seasons, even 15M over cap will balloon to insane amounts, you can get to 180M-200M in a hurry. OG could have a breakout year anytime, who thought siakam will get the max one year earlier? 

But regardless of that, even if luxury would not be a concern, deciding and agreeing on an extension ahead of term is always a good practice. The only time it makes little sense is when you are giving a max extension, unless a team tries to hedge against a possible 30% contract, like in siakam's case, or it's such a sure fire thing that you don't want to risk repeating the kawhi situation in SA.

We got unlucky (since the award is utterly meaningless after siakam's playoff performance, his reputation will take some recovering now), but even so, siakam got less than max. He would have been eligible for a 30% starting price, and even with the playoff performance, a negotiation down from that would have been riskier- there's potential for bad blood developing if it gets ugly.

The ONLY reason the team would hesitate trying to extend OG is the cap space for a max next year, or else it would have been a no-brainer.

And that's what makes this interesting, masai will have to weigh the medium/long term benefits of an early extension vs the cap space penalty. And it's all in the numbers, obviously, if OG is willing to take anything less than 11.4M, you do it. He'll ask for more, but maybe not much more. Worth calling his agent imo.
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Jakkal
moremilk wrote:

We got unlucky (since the award is utterly meaningless after siakam's playoff performance...


Maybe it helps boost Siakam's confidence, but if I were him after his quality of play in the playoffs I'd toss it in the trash compacter.
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DanH
moremilk wrote:
where did I say that? I said they won't want to go deep in the tax. Once you go in the tax for 3 seasons, even 15M over cap will balloon to insane amounts, you can get to 180M-200M in a hurry. OG could have a breakout year anytime, who thought siakam will get the max one year earlier? 

But regardless of that, even if luxury would not be a concern, deciding and agreeing on an extension ahead of term is always a good practice. The only time it makes little sense is when you are giving a max extension, unless a team tries to hedge against a possible 30% contract, like in siakam's case, or it's such a sure fire thing that you don't want to risk repeating the kawhi situation in SA.

We got unlucky (since the award is utterly meaningless after siakam's playoff performance, his reputation will take some recovering now), but even so, siakam got less than max. He would have been eligible for a 30% starting price, and even with the playoff performance, a negotiation down from that would have been riskier- there's potential for bad blood developing if it gets ugly.

The ONLY reason the team would hesitate trying to extend OG is the cap space for a max next year, or else it would have been a no-brainer.

And that's what makes this interesting, masai will have to weigh the medium/long term benefits of an early extension vs the cap space penalty. And it's all in the numbers, obviously, if OG is willing to take anything less than 11.4M, you do it. He'll ask for more, but maybe not much more. Worth calling his agent imo.


I agree, literally anything is worth a call.

But if OG’s agent doesn’t laugh you off the phone when you offer anything less than 20M he should be fired, re-hired and fired again for good measure. OG will be an RFA in a summer when every team will have cap room and there are only a few stars to go around. He’s gonna get paid, and he and his agent know it. 

Heck, I’d love if you were right and they can lock him up under 15M AAV long term. It’s just hard to imagine.
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Mo_fusion
All this talk of cap space, max this, tax that...how the eff doing teams like LAL, HOU, GSW, PHI have so many high paid ballers and get away with it ?
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DanH
Mo_fusion wrote:
All this talk of cap space, max this, tax that...how the eff doing teams like LAL, HOU, GSW, PHI have so many high paid ballers and get away with it ?


How many high paid guys do you think LAL have?

Once you have talent you can add salary really easily. Draft a bunch of guys, spend up to the cap while they are cheap, then go over the cap to re-sign them. 

Heck, our current team is a good example, we have a lot of high salary players.

But if any team wants to sign a big name FA, they need cap room. 
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