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moremilk
elT wrote:


He is really good defender, is long and athletic. That is the baseline. 

His offensive production depends on confidence and clarity of role. He really needs that. And to have that he needs stable minutes and finely tuned place within the offense. 

He kicked ass last year against the Bucks. Hit 10 out of 11 threes and helped dismantle the Bucks and their stupid defensive scheme. His drives/cuts were also really really good. Few times he flashed a solid P&R ball handler ability. Pretty good for a guy who "can't shoot, can't finish, hardly a difference maker".

You are kicking a guy while he is down. This is certainly the worst he has been in past three years. As mentioned before, the style change has hit him hard, probably the hardest out of all our guards. 

It certainly hasn't been great this season but to give up on a guy like that, completely dismiss him and abilities he has shown including the ability to overcome difficult times, I find that terribly short sighted and bad.  


I'm not giving up on him, as I stated in this very thread and many times before. He has the tools to justify his contract. One day.

However, I can't see any team willing to give away a draft pick for, essentially, a 25 years old prospect. Especially when you have to pay 10m a year for the next 4 seasons. Better to draft a 19 year old long athletic guy and develop that for free for 4 seasons.
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DanH
moremilk wrote:
I'm not giving up on him, as I stated in this very thread and many times before. He has the tools to justify his contract. One day. However, I can't see any team willing to give away a draft pick for, essentially, a 25 years old prospect. Especially when you have to pay 10m a year for the next 4 seasons. Better to draft a 19 year old long athletic guy and develop that for free for 4 seasons.


That's one way to look at it.

Another is that a lot of teams will be in that above-the-cap but below-the-tax window this summer, and will only have the MLE to add salary/talent to their team.  Being able to get Powell (who for all his struggles is still an NBA player, which is no guarantee with a late 1st or 2nd round pick) could basically be a second MLE signing for a capped team.  
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DocHolliday
moremilk wrote:
I'm not giving up on him, as I stated in this very thread and many times before. He has the tools to justify his contract. One day. However, I can't see any team willing to give away a draft pick for, essentially, a 25 years old prospect. Especially when you have to pay 10m a year for the next 4 seasons. Better to draft a 19 year old long athletic guy and develop that for free for 4 seasons.


For FREE??? Sign me up 😃 lol jk

Seriously, I know Powell has struggled this year and he's played himself out of the rotation as he's struggled to adapt his game but a BIG reason he's out of the rotation is not just his struggles but the stellar play of FvV.  There are a lot of things in the air...does the team keep FvV this summer?  If so then I can see Powell being moved.  If not, the the team needs Powell.  What happens if Wright, FVV or Miles is hurt in the playoffs or next season?  Powell can step into any of those roles.

His struggles won't continue as he'll learn to adapt his game imo.  There are 2 more years of this "window", makes complete sense to me to keep Powell for those 2 years despite the tax implications and see how everything shapes out then.    
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moremilk
DanH wrote:


That's one way to look at it.

Another is that a lot of teams will be in that above-the-cap but below-the-tax window this summer, and will only have the MLE to add salary/talent to their team.  Being able to get Powell (who for all his struggles is still an NBA player, which is no guarantee with a late 1st or 2nd round pick) could basically be a second MLE signing for a capped team.  


adding a MLE and 10M player would automatically push any team over the cap into luxury. Think teams will be lining up to give away draft picks to go in luxury just to take a flyer on powell?

I can see a team trading away an expiring contract for powell, possibly, if they really like him. But to give away a first, no - just 0% chance of that imo.
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DanH
moremilk wrote:


adding a MLE and 10M player would automatically push any team over the cap into luxury. Think teams will be lining up to give away draft picks to go in luxury just to take a flyer on powell?

I can see a team trading away an expiring contract for powell, possibly, if they really like him. But to give away a first, no - just 0% chance of that imo.


Any team with sub-MLE cap space is considered "over the cap."  So the range between being over the cap and hitting the tax is about 30M.  Adding 18M in salary means there's a 12M window where that could come in handy without hitting the tax.
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KAWHACTUS
elT wrote:


He is really good defender, is long and athletic. That is the baseline. 

His offensive production depends on confidence and clarity of role. He really needs that. And to have that he needs stable minutes and finely tuned place within the offense. 

He kicked ass last year against the Bucks. Hit 10 out of 11 threes and helped dismantle the Bucks and their stupid defensive scheme. His drives/cuts were also really really good. Few times he flashed a solid P&R ball handler ability. Pretty good for a guy who "can't shoot, can't finish, hardly a difference maker".

You are kicking a guy while he is down. This is certainly the worst he has been in past three years. As mentioned before, the style change has hit him hard, probably the hardest out of all our guards. 

It certainly hasn't been great this season but to give up on a guy like that, completely dismiss him and abilities he has shown including the ability to overcome difficult times, I find that terribly short sighted and bad.  


Spare us the Bargnani style excuses. His playoff outburst was just that. He became a fan fave when we had to play him due to Lowrys injury. He is a stiff this year, injured or not. He has no shot to speak of, no handle and is not a facilitator. He has no place on this team. 
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elT
heelmaniac wrote:


Spare us the Bargnani style excuses. His playoff outburst was just that. He became a fan fave when we had to play him due to Lowrys injury. He is a stiff this year, injured or not. He has no shot to speak of, no handle and is not a facilitator. He has no place on this team. 


Bargnani style excuse? Spare me the Skip Bayless nonsense. 
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moremilk
DanH wrote:


Any team with sub-MLE cap space is considered "over the cap."  So the range between being over the cap and hitting the tax is about 30M.  Adding 18M in salary means there's a 12M window where that could come in handy without hitting the tax.


That's if they are right against the cap, but on the wrong side. Not very likely, especially for the teams that would have late lottery picks to trade. But those teams are far more likely to be wary of the luxury tax.

The fact is, no good team would be even remotely interested in Powell right now.

The best hope would be a bad team that has multiple draft picks, including a late one, and has cap space to burn. Somebody like the nets, except they only have our pick this year.

And they would need a gm in love with Powell's potential.

Stranger things have happened, but it would not be something I'd bet on.
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Northern Neighbour
moremilk wrote:
That's if they are right against the cap, but on the wrong side. Not very likely, especially for the teams that would have late lottery picks to trade. But those teams are far more likely to be wary of the luxury tax. The fact is, no good team would be even remotely interested in Powell right now. The best hope would be a bad team that has multiple draft picks, including a late one, and has cap space to burn. Somebody like the nets, except they only have our pick this year. And they would need a gm in love with Powell's potential. Stranger things have happened, but it would not be something I'd bet on.


You're sounding like Deaner, treating your opinion as fact. Unless you have absolute evidence that 29 other GMs wouldn't be interested in Powell at the expense of a late-1st or early 2nd-round pick, you cannot treat your comments as truth. As DanH pointed out, there is a lot of gray in the situation, but some team could be interested in Powell. It's not like Powell is making a huge amount, as $10M annually is less than 9% of the tax line. Any pick, especially a first-round pick, though, may be conditional or fall in the mid- to late-20s at this year's drafts.

Rebuilding clubs like Atlanta, Chicago, Phoenix, Dallas, and Sacramento, for instance, could be interested since they have a) cap room and b) have a need for young wing players. If they can do a massively protected 1st-round pick for Powell, they likely will do it. A team like New Orleans, too, could be interested since they could deal for Powell at the draft at his current salary and still re-sign Cousins using his Bird rights.
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moremilk
Northern Neighbour wrote:


You're sounding like Deaner, treating your opinion as fact. Unless you have absolute evidence that 29 other GMs wouldn't be interested in Powell at the expense of a late-1st or early 2nd-round pick, you cannot treat your comments as truth. As DanH pointed out, there is a lot of gray in the situation, but some team could be interested in Powell. It's not like Powell is making a huge amount, as $10M annually is less than 9% of the tax line. Any pick, especially a first-round pick, though, may be conditional or fall in the mid- to late-20s at this year's drafts.

Rebuilding clubs like Atlanta, Chicago, Phoenix, Dallas, and Sacramento, for instance, could be interested since they have a) cap room and b) have a need for young wing players. If they can do a massively protected 1st-round pick for Powell, they likely will do it. A team like New Orleans, too, could be interested since they could deal for Powell at the draft at his current salary and still re-sign Cousins using his Bird rights.


Sorry, but you make no sense. By your logic, any statement would be impossible to argue. You could say tomorrow that we could get a top 10 player and 5 first round picks, and I couldn't argue it, unless I call every gm that has a top 10 player to ask if he would be open.

As far opinion vs fact, we're talking about the future, so, by definition, everything is an opinion. Or, more precisely, a prediction.

That being said, I would definitely estimate the chances of Powell netting us a first rounder in a trade at less than 5%. At best.

As far as your argument about bad teams, they are weak because they are ignoring the fact those teams usually have cap space. The market this summer is going to be rough for a lot of good players. Guys like smartor Evans will struggle to attract 10m/year. That's why Lou settled for 8m this winter.

You are also ignoring the fact that teams know we have cap issues, they know we are not relying on Powell, and they can reasonably assume we'd be happy just to get his contract off the books.

You are also ignoring the fact that guys like evans or Lou couldn't be moved for a late first rounder - and Powell will probably never be as good as them.

And, finally, you are also ignoring the fact that Powell just sucks right now. At best, a team will be looking to buy low, if they were interested.
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Northern Neighbour
moremilk wrote:


Sorry, but you make no sense. By your logic, any statement would be impossible to argue. You could say tomorrow that we could get a top 10 player and 5 first round picks, and I couldn't argue it, unless I call every gm that has a top 10 player to ask if he would be open.

As far opinion vs fact, we're talking about the future, so, by definition, everything is an opinion. Or, more precisely, a prediction.

That being said, I would definitely estimate the chances of Powell netting us a first rounder in a trade at less than 5%. At best.

As far as your argument about bad teams, they are weak because they are ignoring the fact those teams usually have cap space. The market this summer is going to be rough for a lot of good players. Guys like smartor Evans will struggle to attract 10m/year. That's why Lou settled for 8m this winter.

You are also ignoring the fact that teams know we have cap issues, they know we are not relying on Powell, and they can reasonably assume we'd be happy just to get his contract off the books.

You are also ignoring the fact that guys like evans or Lou couldn't be moved for a late first rounder - and Powell will probably never be as good as them.

And, finally, you are also ignoring the fact that Powell just sucks right now. At best, a team will be looking to buy low, if they were interested.


Of course you can state your opinion. You can’t treat it and fact, though, which is what you’re doing here. You also cannot treat every situation as black and white, which you often do.

You can say you think the likelihood of Powell being traded for a first-round pick is low, and I think most people would be fine with that. Your delivery in this thread, however, comes across as one that is fact-based when it clearly is not.

As Dan mentioned, teams may be interested in Powell because they could acquire him at his current salary near the draft and then make another splash in FA using the MLE. For a lot of teams, most of who have little to no cap room, they can still sign another FA using one of he exceptions and still be below the tax line. As you’ve noted, the FA market likely will be suppressed this year (and there’s isn’t a whole lot of talent outside of the big 2), so players will be signing for lower deals. As such, a team can fit Powell and a FA, which is better than just acquiring one player (since they only have the MLE).

Is it likely the Raptors can get a first-round pick for Powell? I don’t know, but I think they can - one with a lot of conditions attached. Teams like Sacramento, Indiana, maybe even OKC could be interested since they’re not big destinations and have needs on the wing. There are other teams, too, that fall in this category.
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JeffB
I was thinking about Poeltl after the last game and was thinking about how good he would look in NY next to Porzingos if they had kept that pick and picked him. It's still astounding to me that we got a top 10 pick for Bargnani. 😂
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Pzabby_2nd
JeffB_STR82DVD wrote:
I was thinking about Poeltl after the last game and was thinking about how good he would look in NY next to Porzingos if they had kept that pick and picked him. It's still astounding to me that we got a top 10 pick for Bargnani. 😂


I mean, he was a number 1 pick... [wink]
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Northern Neighbour
JeffB_STR82DVD wrote:
I was thinking about Poeltl after the last game and was thinking about how good he would look in NY next to Porzingos if they had kept that pick and picked him. It's still astounding to me that we got a top 10 pick for Bargnani. 😂


See Milky, never underestimate Masai's abilities. He's netted big returns for Bargnani (Poeltl + spare parts), John Salmons (Lou Williams + Bebe), and Greivis Vazquez (Siakim + Powell).
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